The Hormuz Crisis: What Every Expat in Japan Needs to Know Right Now (March 2026)

Let me be direct with you. Last week I filled up my car in Tokyo and the pump read ¥200 per litre. That stopped me in my tracks. Japan’s petrol prices were already rising before this crisis, but ¥200 was a shock — the kind of number that makes you realise something serious is happening. Fortunately, the Japanese government moved quickly with emergency fuel subsidies that have since pulled that number back. But the subsidies are a band-aid on a much larger wound. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is real, it is serious, and if you are an expat living in Japan right now, you need to understand what is actually happening and what it means for your daily life. This is not fearmongering. This is facts.

What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter to Japan?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — only 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point — through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day normally flow. That is roughly one-fifth of all global oil trade and about one-quarter of all seaborne crude. On February 28, 2026, following coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran closed the strait to commercial shipping. Tanker traffic dropped by approximately 70 percent, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid attacks. Iran’s IRGC has since made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships.

For most of the world, this is an energy crisis. For Japan, it is an existential energy emergency. According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 95.1 percent of Japan’s crude oil imports came from the Middle East as of January 2026, with about 73.7 percent transported through the Strait of Hormuz. No other major developed economy is this exposed to a single shipping chokepoint. The strait is not just Japan’s oil route — it is Japan’s energy lifeline.

How is the Strait of Hormuz crisis affecting Japan?

The effects are already visible and measurable. The yen weakened to levels not seen in about 20 months, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama commenting that currency intervention is on the table due to significant volatility in financial markets. Net sales by foreign investors in the Japanese stock market reached the highest level in around five months. On the street level: petrol prices hit ¥200 per litre before government intervention, electricity bills are set to rise, and the cost of transported goods — which is almost everything — is heading upward.

A poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun on March 14–15 showed that 90 percent of respondents were somewhat or greatly anxious about the conflict’s impact on the Japanese economy. That is not media panic — that is the most accurate possible measure of how seriously the Japanese public is taking this.

Is Japan running out of oil in 2026?

Not immediately — but the clock is ticking. Japan holds one of the world’s largest strategic energy buffers. Japan has 470 million barrels of oil stockpiled: 254 days worth of domestic demand, comprised of 146 days in the national stockpile, 101 days in mandatory private stockpiles, and 7 days in a reserve. That sounds reassuring. But the emergency release Japan has already initiated tells you how seriously they are taking the situation. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi announced plans to unilaterally release 80 million barrels of oil from stockpiles — the largest drawdown since the reserve system was established in 1978 — with the emergency measure expected to cover only about 45 days of consumption. Forty-five days. That underscores exactly what is at stake if this closure persists.

Will prices go up in Japan because of the Hormuz crisis?

Yes. They already are, and more is coming. Let’s break it down category by category:

In a more pessimistic scenario, economists at Nomura Research Institute project that if oil prices reach $130 per barrel, Japan’s GDP could be reduced by 0.65 percentage points within a year, while inflation could rise by 1.14 percent. Brent crude was already trading at around $104.85 per barrel as of mid-March 2026, up more than 40 percent since the conflict began on February 28. The $130 scenario is not extreme. It is the base case if the strait remains closed through Q2.

What about petrol? The ¥200 per litre moment

I want to talk about this directly because I lived it. A week ago I pulled into a petrol station in Tokyo, looked at the pump display, and saw ¥200 per litre. That is a number that fundamentally changes the calculation of owning a car in Japan — a full tank was approaching ¥10,000. Since then, the Japanese government has stepped in with emergency subsidies to bring that price back down, and the relief is real and appreciated. But let’s be clear about what those subsidies mean: they are a bridge, not a solution. The government is paying the difference between market price and the subsidised price out of the national budget. The emergency reserve release is expected to cover only about 45 days of consumption, underscoring the stakes if tensions persist. If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through spring and summer, those subsidies will face extraordinary fiscal pressure to maintain.

How will the Iran war affect electricity prices in Japan in 2026?

Electricity bills in Japan were still showing negative year-on-year growth in February 2026 — the result of government subsidies suppressing what would otherwise be much higher costs. But this is temporary. Japan generates a significant portion of its electricity from LNG (liquefied natural gas), and roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. The second the subsidy programme cannot keep pace with global energy prices, household electricity and gas bills will jump. This latest energy crisis is likely to amplify the energy and economic security argument for timelier nuclear reactor restarts and new builds. As of March 2026, Japan has 15 nuclear reactors in operation, with three ready for restart. Expect announcements on reactor restarts in the coming weeks as political pressure builds.

Why is food about to get more expensive in Japan?

This is the part most people are not yet paying attention to — but should be. The Hormuz crisis is not just an oil and petrol story. It is a food story too, and here is why:

• Fertilizer prices have exploded. The cost of FOB granular urea in Egypt jumped to around $700 per metric ton, up from $400–$490 before the war. Urea and ammonia prices have surged by around 50% and 20%, respectively, since the war began. Urea and ammonia are the primary inputs for the fertilizers that grow rice, wheat, vegetables, and soybeans. Higher fertilizer costs mean higher food production costs globally, and Japan imports heavily.
• Transport costs are rising. Every item that arrives in Japan by ship — which is almost everything — carries the cost of higher fuel prices, higher insurance premiums, and rerouted shipping. Those costs land on supermarket shelves with a lag of weeks to months.
• The yen is weakening. A weaker yen makes every imported product more expensive in yen terms, even before the commodity price increases are factored in.
• Rice was already at +27.9% YoY in January 2026 — before this crisis. The Hormuz disruption adds fuel (literally) to an already burning fire.

Should expats in Japan stockpile food and supplies?

Go do your grocery shopping before prices go up further. I am not joking. This is not about panic buying or clearing shelves — it is about basic financial sense. The prices you see today at your local supermarket or conbini are going to be lower than the prices you see in three to six months if this crisis continues. Non-perishable staples that are smart to have in stock right now:

• Rice — already up nearly 28% year-on-year and Japan’s staple carbohydrate. Buy a reasonable stock now.
• Cooking oil — tied directly to global energy and fertilizer prices. Will rise.
• Instant noodles and dried pasta — long shelf life, energy-dense, and grain-based (fertilizer-linked).
• Canned fish and meat — protein with long shelf life. Japan has excellent canned sardine and mackerel products at very reasonable prices right now.
• Miso and soy sauce — fermented staples that keep for months. Japanese cooking essentials.
• Bottled water and sports drinks — basic emergency preparedness regardless of this crisis.
• Household staples (detergent, toilet paper, batteries) — petrochemical-linked or transport-cost sensitive. Buy ahead.

What has the Japanese government done about the Hormuz crisis?

Japan has moved faster and more decisively than most people expected. Here is a timeline of what has been done:

• March 2: Prime Minister Takaichi publicly calls for diplomatic de-escalation and urges Iran to cease attacks.
• March 9: METI instructs ten domestic storage bases to begin preparations for strategic oil release.
• March 11: Japan announces it will act unilaterally on oil reserves rather than wait for IEA coordination.
• March 16: Japan begins releasing 80 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves — the largest drawdown since the reserve system was established in 1978, coordinating shortly before the IEA announced a record 400-million-barrel global release.
• Ongoing: Emergency petrol price subsidies introduced to prevent pump prices from staying above ¥200 per litre.
• Ongoing: Three nuclear reactors ready for restart are under accelerated political review.

Japan declared it has no plans to deploy its Maritime Self-Defense Force to the strait for now — but this is a live political discussion. Former Prime Minister Abe had explicitly cited a Hormuz mine blockade as a potential “survival-threatening situation” justifying military action under Japan’s 2015 security legislation. That legal framework now exists. Whether it is invoked depends on how long the crisis persists.

How does this compare to Japan’s previous oil crises?

To understand the scale of what Japan is facing, some historical context matters. The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has been characterised by the International Energy Agency as the greatest global energy and food security challenge in history. Japan has faced energy shocks before — the 1973 Yom Kippur War oil embargo triggered Japan’s first major energy crisis and permanent changes to industrial and energy policy. The 1979 Iranian Revolution caused another. What makes 2026 different is the combination: simultaneous disruption to oil AND LNG AND fertilizers AND global shipping insurance AND a weak yen, all landing on an economy that was already dealing with domestic food inflation from the 2024–2025 rice shortage.

What does this mean for expats’ salaries and finances in Japan?

Several financial pressures are converging for expats right now:

• Yen weakness amplifies everything. If you earn in yen, your purchasing power for imported goods drops. If you earn in foreign currency and convert to yen, you are temporarily better off — but that dynamic can reverse quickly if Japan intervenes in currency markets.
• Monthly living costs are heading upward. Petrol, electricity, food, and restaurant prices all moving in the same direction simultaneously means household budgets need revision. Add ¥10,000–20,000 per month to your mental baseline depending on your lifestyle.
• Salary adjustments lag behind inflation. If you are employed in Japan, your salary will not automatically adjust for energy-driven inflation. Budget accordingly.
• Business owners face supply chain cost increases. If you run a business in Japan that depends on imported goods, deliveries, or logistics, you should be reviewing your pricing and contracts now.

What should expats living in Japan do right now?

Here is the practical action list — not fear, just preparation:

• Do your grocery shopping now. Build a reasonable stock of non-perishables — rice, cooking oil, canned goods, instant noodles, miso. Prices will be higher in three months.
• Reduce unnecessary car journeys. Even with subsidies, petrol is expensive. Use trains where possible. Japan’s public transport is world-class — use it.
• Review your electricity and gas usage. Energy bills will rise. Small adjustments now — setting aircon slightly warmer, using energy-efficient settings — add up over months of higher prices.
• Monitor the Japan government energy advisory page (METI) and the IEA situation reports for the most authoritative updates.
• If you drive and need fuel, fill up earlier in the week. Petrol prices in Japan tend to be updated weekly and are currently volatile.
• Stay connected with the expat community. Real-time information sharing from people living the same situation is more practically useful than most news coverage. More on that below.

How long will the Hormuz crisis last?

Nobody knows. What the data tells us: the Dallas Federal Reserve’s model implies that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz removing close to 20 percent of global oil supplies from the market during Q2 2026 is expected to raise the average WTI price of oil to $98 per barrel and lower global real GDP growth by an annualized 2.9 percentage points. The US military began operations to reopen the strait on March 19, 2026, but Iran has shown it can sustain asymmetric disruptions with cheap drones for months even if launch sites are destroyed. The most realistic planning horizon is a crisis that persists through Q2 2026 at minimum, with meaningful uncertainty extending into Q3.

What is the mood like among expats in Tokyo right now?

Honestly? Cautious but functional. Japan is not in panic mode — the culture does not work that way — and the government’s rapid response has kept shelves stocked and fuel flowing. But the anxiety is real. At our TIFE community events this month, it has been one of the most talked-about topics — people comparing petrol prices, asking about electricity bills, sharing tips on where to shop smart. The expat community in Tokyo is a genuinely useful mutual support network in moments like this. If you are not already connected, now is an especially good time to be.

The big picture: what does the Hormuz crisis reveal about Japan?

Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90 percent of its crude oil imports, most of which passes through Hormuz. This crisis has exposed, with brutal clarity, the structural vulnerability that Japanese policymakers have known about for decades but never fully resolved. The 1973 oil shock was supposed to trigger an energy transition. It did — partially. But Japan is still 80 percent dependent on imported fossil fuels, and 95 percent of its crude oil comes from a region now disrupted by the most serious military conflict the Middle East has seen in decades. The political consequences — accelerated nuclear restarts, renewed urgency around renewables, diversification of energy suppliers — will shape Japan’s energy and economic policy for the next decade. As an expat living here, you are witnessing a turning point in Japanese history in real time.

---

Summary: what every expat in Japan needs to know right now

• Japan gets 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, mostly through the now-disrupted Strait of Hormuz
• Petrol hit ¥200 per litre before government subsidies intervened — subsidies are a bridge, not permanent
• Japan has released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves — the biggest emergency drawdown in its history
• Food prices were already up 3.9% year-on-year before the crisis and will rise further
• Rice was up 27.9% year-on-year — stock up now while prices are lower than they will be
• Fertilizer prices have surged 50% — food inflation is coming with a lag of months
• The crisis is expected to persist through Q2 2026 at minimum
• Do your grocery shopping now. Build a sensible non-perishable stock. Prices will be higher later.
• Stay connected with the expat community for real-time practical information

If you are living in Japan right now, you are in one of the best-prepared, most resilient societies in the world to weather a crisis like this. The infrastructure works, the government is responsive, and the cultural instinct toward calm and collective order means Japan handles shocks better than almost anywhere else. But preparation is still smart. Stay connected with your community, make sensible practical choices, and keep watching the situation closely. This is a story that is still being written.

※Make sure to change the region of your Phone setting to Japan

Subscribe now and get news from us !